💥 Introduction: The Google $1 Trillion Question

Google’ Stock tumbled 7.5% on May 7, 2025, with the worst day since bother brothers filed for bankruptcy. What are you, Niall Ferguson, back to write for them?

Which one word explanation can account for this? Apple.

A Bloomberg article revealed that Eddy Cue, Apple’s head of services, believes AI-powered search will soon replace traditional search. In other words, Google’s golden goose—Search—may be coming to an end.

And let’s face it: if Search dies, so too does Google’s entire empire. Does this sound like an exaggeration? Perhaps not.

🍏 What Triggered the Panic? Apple’s AI Bombshell

Not only was this not about Google directly, it actually came from Apple–basically saying that in the future answering your kid’s questions with a iPhone means using anything other than Google Search.

Apple’s Siri and approximately the size of a Chat GPT model in AI-built hardware will allow users to ask things right from the lock screen. There’s no need to “Google it.” No browser. No blue links.

For Google, that’s pretty terrifying. Not only is Apple a competitor, but iPhones are prime real estate for ad dollars and search queries.

🏗 How Google Makes Money: Built On Search

Let’s not pretend: Google is a search company.

Here’s the breakdown of income from 2024:

🧠 Google Search & Other:$198 billion
📺 YouTube Ads: ~$36 billion
🌐 Google Network: ~$30 billion

That is to say, ads accounted for $265 billion out of $350 billion in total sales—76% of Alphabet’s business.

Everything else—Waymo, DeepMind, even Google Cloud—is paid for by Search.

⚠️ The Cracks Are Showing: AI Disruption Is Real

Google’s greatest strength—the search monopoly—is turning into its most glaring vulnerability.

Apple is embedding AI deeply into iOS. Platforms such as Chat GPT, Perplexity AI, and Bing Copilot are getting to be the go-to tools for search-like queries.

According to that report, the drop in iPhone referral traffic from Google could come in 2006 or 2007.

If that happens, advertisers will move their money to platforms in the AI space that offer better targeting and user engagement.

🧪 Stress Test: What If Search Declines by 20%?

Let ‘s do some back-of-the-envelope math. If AI alternatives cut Google Search revenue by 15-20%, Alphabet loses $40-60 billion a year.

But AI development is so expensive. Google will have to spend more on chips (TPUs), servers and inference compute. That moves costs up, margins down.

📉 Operating margins could slide from 32% to around 26%.

That’s not just a bruise. That’s a new valuation reality.

🧮 Valuation Breakdown: From Tech Titan to Value Trap?

Here ‘s where it really starts to get chilling for investors.

Look at the current valuation:

Market Cap: ~$2.0 trillion
P/E Ratio: ~17x
EV/EBITDA: ~14x
FCF Yield: ~3.8%

But if Search no longer is “invincible,” Wall Street won ‘t award those same multiples.

❌ If P/E compresses down to 12x and earnings fall… bang, you ‘re looking at a 35-40% collapse. That’s about $800 billion in lost value. Poof.

🧠 What the Market Could Miss: The IBM and Intel Playbook

In history, many major tech leaders have missed platform shifts.

IBM missed cloud computing.
Intel was bypassed by Apple Silicon.
For a long time, Microsoft almost lost mobile.

Will Google be the next in that series of enterprises to fail?

Should conversational AI become the new gateway to the internet and Google not be the majority owner… it could become just another Yahoo.

👁 What Investors Should Watch Closely

Want to know if this nightmare is coming true? Then keep your eyes on:

How many people are working with iOS 18, and are they using Siri? The traffic from Google to Apple as well ( Traffic Acquisition Costs ) Chrome ‘s usage relative to AI native tools Where advertising is invested in AI ad networks
This is the earliest of the early warnings: do not ignore them at your peril.

✘ Conclusion: Can Google’s iPhone Moment Fail, Or Even Fall to Apple?

Back in 2007, the iPhone changed what technology meant to us.

In 2025, Google might face a iPhone moment of its own- and on the losing side turn.

Not only is there the worry of a fall in ad revenue. Will Google still be at the core of how we look for information?

The 7.5% fall in shares? That may well be prelude.

When Soul Killer is finally upon us forever, and its machochine replaces search, Alphabet stock could plunge by another 40%, taking a trillion dollars from value off the markets.

This isn’t just a beat, it’s a confrontation with who you are.